ASML raises expectations due to AI boom
ASML posts strong results in Q1 2026 and raises its annual outlook thanks to the enormous demand for AI chips.
Published on April 15, 2026
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ASML has started the year 2026 with impressive figures. The Dutch chip machine manufacturer is fully benefiting from global investments in infrastructure for artificial intelligence. With a net revenue of 8.8 billion euros in the first quarter, the company exceeds earlier expectations from analysts. The demand for the most advanced machines is currently so high that customers are accelerating their capacity plans for the coming years. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and new export restrictions surrounding China, the management in Veldhoven looks with confidence at the rest of the year. The company has now revised its annual revenue forecast upwards.
Financial performance in the first quarter
ASML has closed the first quarter of 2026 with very solid financial results. Total net revenue amounted to 8.8 billion euros. This resulted in a net profit of 2.8 billion euros for the company. Especially the gross margin of 53.0 percent stands out in the quarterly figures. This percentage is an important measure of profitability and shows that ASML has its production costs well under control.
In the first three months of the year, the company delivered a total of 67 new lithography systems to customers. In addition, 12 used systems found their way to the market. These figures confirm the dominant position of the manufacturer from Veldhoven in the global semiconductor industry. The company also decided to buy back its own shares for approximately 1.1 billion euros. This is part of a large buyback program that runs through 2028. The strong cash flow enables ASML to both invest in growth and return capital to shareholders.
The driving force of artificial intelligence
The current growth in the chip sector is almost entirely driven by the enormous demand for artificial intelligence (AI). Massive investments are being made worldwide in data centers and AI infrastructure. As a result, the demand for advanced semiconductors is currently significantly higher than the available supply. Chip manufacturers must therefore expand their production capacity faster than they had initially planned. ASML’s machines form the indispensable link in this process. Customers are accelerating their plans for additional capacity for 2026 and the years beyond.
This has led to a very strong inflow of new orders in the past quarter. Although the market still went through a period of normalization in 2025, there is now a clear acceleration. The hunger for computing power to train complex AI models seems far from being satisfied. For ASML, this means that the order book remains well filled. The company must now mainly focus on scaling up its own production in order to meet this enormous market demand.
Geopolitical headwinds from the United States
Despite its commercial successes, ASML is dealing with a challenging political climate. The United States is exerting increasing pressure to restrict the export of high-end technology to China. In the U.S. Congress, the MATCH Act has been introduced for this purpose. This proposed legislation specifically targets limiting the sale and maintenance of DUV immersion lithography systems to Chinese customers. China was still a very important market for ASML in 2025, accounting for approximately 30 percent of total revenue. However, the company expects this share to normalize to around 20 percent in 2026.
This decline is a direct result of stricter export licenses and political restrictions. The uncertainty surrounding these measures has also affected the share price. Earlier, ASML’s stock fell by about 4 percent following news about the possible restrictions. Management must constantly maneuver between commercial interests in Asia and the security requirements of Western allies. As a result, dependence on the Chinese market is being reduced out of necessity.
Technological lead with EUV and High-NA
ASML’s technological superiority remains the main pillar underpinning its high profit margins. The gross margin of 53 percent in the first quarter was partly supported by the sale of advanced EUV systems. The chip industry is currently in a transition to 2-nanometer nodes. The newest lithography machines are essential for producing these extremely small structures. A crucial development is the rollout of High-NA EUV systems for large-scale production. These systems enable chipmakers to produce even more powerful and energy-efficient processors.
In addition to the sale of new hardware, the service division also plays a major role. The “Installed Base Management” department provides a stable stream of income through maintenance and upgrades of existing machines. This component helps to keep margins within the stated range of 51 to 53 percent. By continuously innovating, ASML maintains a monopoly position in the most critical parts of the chip production process. This ensures a strong negotiating position with major customers such as TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.
Optimistic about the near future
Given the strong start to the year, ASML’s management has revised its expectations for the full year 2026 upwards. The company now expects total annual revenue to be between 36 billion and 40 billion euros. For the second quarter of 2026, net revenue is expected to be between 8.4 billion and 9.0 billion euros. The gross margin for the full year is expected to come in between 51 and 53 percent. CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen have indicated that 2026 will be a pronounced growth year. The company’s focus is now on increasing production capacity to work through the strong order backlog.