ASML raises revenue forecast amid sustained AI demand

Chipmaking equipment manufacturer ASML reported record revenue of €11.7 billion in the third quarter of this year, compared with €9.3 billion in the previous quarter. The growth was driven by rising demand for equipment used to manufacture chips required for AI applications.

“In the third quarter, we achieved record revenue of €11.7 billion, at the upper end of our expectations. This reflects the successful scaling up of our production,” said Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO of ASML.

ASML expects full-year 2026 revenue to reach between €44 billion and €45 billion. Previously, the lower end of its forecast stood at €43 billion. For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion. To meet growing demand, the company, based in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is exploring ways to further expand its production capacity.

Expanding Production Capacity

Growth is being driven primarily by demand for equipment used to manufacture chips required for AI applications. ASML is the only company in the world that manufactures the most advanced lithography systems, which enable chipmakers to create increasingly smaller and more powerful circuits on chips.

“With such strong visibility into demand and an order book that has gained further momentum in each quarter this year, we now expect that our supply, as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028, will not fully meet our customers’ demand,” Fouquet said. “We are therefore exploring how to increase our capacity for 2028, on top of the previously announced 30% increase.”

In addition to new machines, services and upgrades to existing systems are also contributing to growth. Revenue from maintenance and enhancements to installed equipment amounted to €3.3 billion in the third quarter.

Uncertainties

Despite ASML’s strong outlook, uncertainties remain. The company continues to be exposed to economic developments, geopolitical tensions and export restrictions. The Chinese market is a particular area of concern: approximately one-fifth of revenue still comes from China, although ASML has reduced its dependence on the country over the past two years.

Tensions between the United States and China could put further pressure on this position. Proposals to further restrict exports of chipmaking technology to China are currently under consideration in the US. The so-called MATCH Act includes additional restrictions on certain ASML chipmaking machines. The most advanced machines are already prohibited from being exported to China. Further restrictions could limit ASML’s access to the Chinese market even more and affect the company’s future financial performance.